BUFFALO, NY - The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season starts on June 1, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its outlook for the season Thursday.
And it looks to be a near normal to above normal season. The 2018 Hurricane Season Outlook shows 10 to 16 named storms are possible, the average is 12.
With 5 to 9 of those being hurricanes, the average is 6. And 1 to 4 major hurricanes (reaching a category three or higher), the average is 3.
"That's quite a few hurricanes. We're not expecting this season to be the most active on record," Gerry Bell, NOAA Meteorologist, said. "There's no strong climate signals that says it will be extremely active like last year or extremely weak."
NOAA Meteorologists say there could also be more tropical activity closer to the states this hurricane season. "When you have a more active season or above normal like we're predicting this year, that's when you have more storms forming in the tropical Atlantic," Bell explained. "And those storms tend to track further westward and that's why the Caribbean and the Continental United States are more at risk."
"The outlook suggests that we will experience a near or above normal hurricane season this year," Dr. Neil Jacobs, Asst. Sec. of Commerce for NOAA Environmental Observation & Prediction, said. "And NOAA is taking great stride to deliver the world's best regional and global weather models to keep you informed ahead of an approaching storm."
Global weather patterns, such as a weak El Nino expected to develop, are among the reasons behind the outlook.
A La Nina can help more hurricanes form from reduced wind shear.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season goes from June 1st until November 30th.