ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills as they enter the 2024 NFL Draft, which begins Thursday night and runs through Saturday:
1. Saying the Bills have a desperate need for receiver help is an understatement.
After parting ways with their top two players at the position (Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis) and modestly addressing it in free agency, a draft hyped as being exceptionally deep at receiver presents the most obvious replacement avenue.
The question is, where will the Bills pick one? They currently own the 28th overall choice, and by most accounts they could get a top-notch receiver there. That would seemingly be the best scenario, because the Bills would get a receiver while keeping their remaining nine selections to hit many other needs and/or trade for targeted prospects.
Many media mock drafts have the Bills choosing Adonai Mitchell of Texas. At 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds, he has excellent size and speed. Mitchell’s ability to consistently beat press coverage, an area where rookie receivers routinely struggle, makes him especially attractive. His shortcomings when it comes to running precise routes and aggressively snatching the ball out of the air are what could push him to the lower part of the first round.
Another popular name attached to the team is Brian Thomas Jr., of LSU. At 6-3 and 209 pounds, Thomas has even more ideal size than Mitchell. He shows good speed and the ability to operate inside or outside. Thomas’ inability to consistently create separation on deep routes could cause him to be available when the Bills pick, though it’s more likely that they’d have to trade up to get him.
That begins the conversation of another way the Bills go about assuring themselves of landing the best pass-catcher possible. The higher the move up from No. 28, the steeper the price in draft picks and/or a player.
“I’ll take any call, you know me,” General Manager Brandon Beane told reporters. “I don’t know if teams in the top 10 are calling us, I wouldn’t expect that. But teams in the teens will start calling because maybe they got their eye on a couple of guys and if they don’t get those, they would soon add something maybe depending on what’s on the board. We’ll assess them all, have conversations, see who’s on the board when their picks come up. ... We’ll also be looking the other way.”
Beane said the Bills have more players with first-round grades than last year, “but not 28” of them. That doesn’t necessarily mean all those players would be gone by the 28th pick, of course.
My thought is that the Bills should be inclined to stay put because I don’t think a receiver they’d pick at No. 28 would fundamentally bring greater improvement to the team than one they’d get 18 or more spots higher.
I also wouldn’t rule out the Bills trading out of the first round, adding draft capital and still being able to get a quality receiver in the second round (they presently don’t have a third).
“There’s a lot of different style receivers from size, speed, quicks,” Beane said. “Some have better hands. Some are not great RAC (run after catch ability) and they’ve got good hands. Some other ones maybe have less size, but if you can get the ball in their hands, they kind of turn into a little bit of a running back. One of the things that people don't always know the full details on, though, is what are their mentals? What are their smarts? What are their habits?
“We’ve tried to go through that, and some have really tested out well (where we would say), ‘This guy, he’s going to pick it up.’ And there’s some others that we have some concerns about. And then there’s medical … Every year, there’s guys that pop up and buyer beware. That doesn’t mean you can’t take them, but you may choose a player that, from a scouting stance, maybe a little less than this guy, but this guy’s a lot healthier than this player. Not a huge difference, but all those factors can happen when you turn the card in and make that final decision that we’re not going to walk down here and share when (reporters ask), ‘Why didn’t you choose this guy or this guy?’ ”
2. I find it curious that Beane, while acknowledging the Bills no longer have a No. 1 target after trading Diggs to Houston, doesn’t share the widely held view that receiver is a must for the first choice.
“You’d love to have two guys out there that are number ones,” Beane said. “What you need are guys that, in this offense, that are smart, versatile, selfless, and can make the plays that their skill set allows them to make. If it’s a tall guy and Josh (Allen) is gonna throw up a 50-50 ball, he’s got to come down with it. If it’s a guy that we want to get the ball in his hands, and when we need some RAC, he’s going to do that.
“If there’s a one that pops up, either in free agency or draft, that makes sense for us, or a really good two, we’ll do it. But I don’t think not having a one doesn’t mean we can’t have success on offense or as a team.”
My inclination is to think that Beane is doing what GMs typically do before a draft: blowing smoke to keep the competition guessing about the Bills’ intensions.
It’s hard to look at the Bills receiver depth chart and believe they’re satisfied with Kahlil Shakir, Justin Shorter, and free-agent newcomers Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins.
Beane would like us to believe otherwise.
“I would say, we have a group of guys, as we sit here today, that we believe bring different skill sets,” he said. “We like the group. Would we like to add to it at some point? Yes. But I’m not sitting here thinking we have a glaring hole.”
3. Here’s something else to consider: a standout receiver doesn’t necessarily have to be a first-round draft pick.
On Wednesday, the Detroit Lions gave Amon-Ra St. Brown a four-year contract extension worth $120 million. He was a fourth-round draft pick in 2021 and promptly emerged as the Lions’ top receiver.
Tyreek Hill, the most explosive receiver in the league, entered the NFL as a sixth-round pick of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2016. After helping the Chiefs reached two Super Bowls and win one, Hill was traded to the Miami Dolphins, who promptly gave him a four-year, $120 million contract extension.
Let’s not forget Stefon Diggs, who joined the Minnesota Vikings as a fifth-round pick in 2015. In 2020, he was traded to the Bills, who would give him a four-year, $96 million contract extension in 2022.
4. What about defense being a priority for the Bills?
It’s entirely possible, particularly if Beane’s assertion that a No. 1 receiver is not a crying need is more than smoke. Remember, during the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine, the GM did say that the Bills could be looking at a play-making tight end as their first choice and they proceeded to trade up in the first round for Dalton Kincaid.
Despite all the clamoring for a receiver with the Bills’ first-round pick, the team could very well go with another area of need: edge rusher. There’s a solid argument for adding someone to beef up the pass rush with lost its best player, Leonard Floyd, to San Francisco in free agency. Aging and ailing Von Miller is unlikely to make all that much of a difference. Greg Rousseau is good, but not great.
Possibilities in the bottom portion of the first round include Chop Robinson of Penn State, Laiatu Latu of UCLA and Johnny Newton of Illinois. The Bills could also go cornerback there, with Kool-Aid McKinstry of Alabama and Cooper DeJean of Iowa candidates at No. 28.
5. The draft will represent another important phase in the remaking of the Bills.
That process began in earnest during the offseason, with the departures of core players Joran Poyer, Tre’Davious White, Mitch Morse, Diggs and Davis. The Bills have made free-agent additions, though none of the marquee variety. Now, they’ll look to the draft to bring aboard more talent that will certainly make them younger, if not better.
“Like anything change is not always bad,” Beane said. “Change can be hard when you’ve had the stability we’ve had at some of the positions. And a lot of those guys were captains, so is that uneasy? Yeah, it is. But sometimes your team has to evolve; it’s probably the best word I (give) it. And we do feel there are some guys currently on the roster that can ascend into some leadership roles.
“Is it going to be where the guys that left left off? No, but hopefully we can grow them? And that's part of the development of our organization. And then, yeah, in this draft, what pieces can we add to come in and either start — it’s hard to start for rookie — but start or be a key backup, help us on teams and be a guy that we’re going to count on for sure in the future? I think there’s a lot of great opportunities and I’m excited about where we’re at and I’m excited about the draft.”