BUFFALO, N.Y. — The weather in Buffalo can vary quite a bit, even in the summer. But when it comes to this year's Buffalo Marathon, racers should plan ahead for true "summer-like" conditions.
A blocking pattern has set up in the atmosphere over the western Atlantic Ocean and the Midwestern United States. The pattern features a strong area of high pressure (the blocking system) over the ocean and a very slow-moving cold front (the blocked system) just to our west.
On race day, dew point temperatures will be right around 70 degrees with an afternoon high temperature close to 90. That is tropical-feeling air that some love, but most around here just aren't used to.
That tropical moisture will combine with very warm air to create potentially dangerous heat index values, especially during the second half of the race. At the starting line, the air temperature will be in the mid 70s but the heat index temperature (shown below) will already be close to 80 degrees. The heat index may reach the low 90s around Buffalo Sunday afternoon.
Furthermore, a Heat Advisory begins at 11 a.m. Sunday and lasts until 8 p.m. for Genesee County. Heat index values of 95 to 99 degrees are expected during this timeframe, which is high enough for heat related illnesses to occur.
It would be best to avoid spending an extended amount of time outside while during peak afternoon hours by keeping strenuous activities to early morning or late evening. Staying hydrated, wearing sunscreen and light-colored clothing, and taking breaks inside in the air conditioning are all ways to combat the heat and prevent heat related illness.
Rain chances look minimal on Sunday, but we can't totally rule out a quick passing shower. There should be a good amount of cloud cover, but racers should still plan on using sunscreen.
Past Buffalo Marathon races have run on days with much more comfortable running conditions, but the odds of that coming to fruition this year dropped with the decision to move the race from its usual Memorial Day weekend slot to late June because of COVID-19 restrictions.
The average temperatures for the last weekend of June are in the low 60s in the morning and near 80 degrees in the afternoon. The last weekend of May? Those averages are in the low 50s and low 70s respectively.
For runners, that 10 degrees jump in averages makes a big difference, but of course those are just averages. Mornings have been in the 40s in the past this time of year. They've also been in the 70s.
But with conditions closer to the latter in the forecast in 2021, runners should stock up on electrolytes and other hydration drinks for race day along with other cooling supplies like ice packs and cooling towels.
You can check for forecast updates any time on the WGRZ app or the Storm Team 2 home page.
