ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on Sunday’s divisional-round playoff game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium:
1. The best teams in the AFC – if not the NFL – are squaring off in this one.
Though neither had a strong enough won-loss record in the regular season to capture the top seed in the AFC, both are playing the best football in the league. They have equally explosive offenses, led by two of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the game in Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, who are surrounded by a plethora of difference-making pass-catchers.
Both have equally solid defenses. Both have equally smart coaches in Sean McDermott and Andy Reid, who gave McDermott his first job in the NFL and is one of his greatest coaching influences.
Put aside the statistical comparisons and allow your eyes do the assessing.
That’s what I did and it was easy to conclude that the Bills and Chiefs are the strongest teams in the AFC side of the tournament. It was also easy to conclude that the winner of their game will advance to the Super Bowl with an excellent chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. Despite their upset win at Tennessee, the Cincinnati Bengals aren’t going to stand in the way of the Bills or Chiefs.
Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu could have been speaking for both teams when he told reporters, “I think this is one of those games that even when those guys make their plays, we just have to go to the next play. We can’t necessarily dwell on the things that they’re doing well. It’s all about what we do and how we respond and react.”
Sunday’s game should offer plenty of back-and-forth, edge-of-your seat action. It shouldn’t be a repeat of the lopsided win the Bills had at Arrowhead in October – that is, other than Buffalo coming out on top.
2. There has been plenty of discussion about the Bills wanting to get revenge for their loss in last year’s AFC Championship Game.
It’s a legitimate source of motivation, though the fact these teams are facing each other for the fourth time in the past two seasons puts a different spin on that. It’s more a case of familiarity breeding contempt, similar to how divisional rivals feel about each other.
Perhaps the Bills didn’t get a full measure of revenge in October, but they did get an idea of how well they stack up against an opponent General Manager Brandon Beane described as the “gold standard” soon after the conference title game defeat.
“I don’t know if 'rivalry' is the right word, but they are the mecca of the AFC,” Allen told reporters. “And that’s the team that everybody wants to aspire to be – to be in three AFC championships in a row and being in two Super Bowls in a row. So that’s the type of level that we want to be and in order to be the best, you’ve got to beat the best.”
This game figures to be much tougher, because the Chiefs have improved significantly. However, regardless of the opponent, the Bills only need to recognize the opportunity before them – the chance to again find themselves within a game of the Super Bowl – to be inspired to deliver the performance necessary to win.
If that isn’t enough, they could always play the “disrespect card,” which was on display when offensive tackle Dion Dawkins met with reporters this week. He talked about the mindset of the offensive line, which took the brunt of the heat directed at the team during a 2-3 stretch that began with a stunning loss at Jacksonville, followed by a beat-down at home against Indianapolis, and a Monday night home defeat against New England.
Another loss, at Tampa Bay, would follow, but the Bills staged a dramatic second-half rally before falling short in overtime against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. That’s widely seen as the turning point of the season. Before that time, though, there was a feeling among the players (which the coaches helped fuel) that the world was against them.
“The world dropped us on our head,” Dawkins said. “And it was only us that could pick us up.”
3. It’s probably unrealistic to expect Josh Allen and the offense to achieve the perfection they did in their 47-17 wild-card victory against New England.
But it’s fair to think they’ll continue with the ascension they’ve shown since that Bucs game. They don’t necessarily need to score a touchdown on every drive to beat the Chiefs, or any other opponent through the balance of the postseason. Being efficient and productive should be good enough to get the job done.
Especially efficient.
Against the Chiefs, sustained drives are a must because they keep Mahomes and the rest of the Kansas City’s offensive playmakers on the sidelines. Besides consistently moving the chains, the Bills must avoid foolish penalties that put them behind the sticks. Turnovers are particularly harmful, because a great offense doesn’t need any additional help.
4. The biggest change in the Chiefs since earlier in the season, when they resembled anything but a two-time defending conference champion, is a stronger defense.
That shouldn’t be a major concern to the Bills.
The Chiefs’ defensive improvement took them from awful to good. It hasn’t necessarily taken them to the point where they can stifle the Bills’ immense offensive firepower.
The emergence of Devin Singletary and Buffalo’s running game presents an additional problem KC’s defense didn’t face in October or in the AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs, as with every Bills opponent, will continue to have their challenges dealing with Allen’s running.
They saw him shred the Patriots last week by completing 84 percent of his throws for 308 yard and five touchdowns, but they also know he did every bit as much damage with his legs, running for 66 yards, and keeping New England’s defense off-balance with his constant running threat.
“He’s obviously a guy that can make all the throws, and any time he’s using his legs, it seems like it’s to his advantage,” Mathieu said. “So, it obviously adds extra pressure on the guys that are covering, but it also adds pressure on the guys that are rushing him just to stay in their lanes and not let him break containment and get into open field.
“But I think anytime he decides to tuck and run the ball, we have to treat him like a running back and treat him like one of these wide receivers where all 11 guys have to pursue and get to the ball. I think it’s going to be one of those games where we’re going to have to tackle him, and we’re going to have to tackle him well.”
5. Buffalo’s defense will also see some significant differences from the Chiefs’ offense.
To combat to the way the Bills and other opponents were using two-deep shell coverage to take away the deep ball, the Chiefs shifted to more of a high-percentage, ball-control passing game that relies on receivers to gain yards after the catch. It also helps create seams in the middle for superstar tight end Travis Kelce and room for the running game, including Patrick Mahomes’ ultra-dangerous legs.
The Bills should be able to hold up reasonably well, given they’re built more for speed than power and their defenders have the athleticism and stamina to cover plenty of ground.
The Chiefs fully understand they have the same challenge dealing with Allen.
“Both of these guys are two of the finest,” Reid told reporters. “They’re both mobile. They both can run around, extend plays. It’s fun to watch unless you’re playing them, right? Then, it’s not so fun.”