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Bills draft preview: Is Lamar Jackson a good fit?

Can Lamar Jackson break stereotype that dual-threat college QBs can't succeed in NFL?

Lamar Jackson has a piece of advice for any NFL team that is considering drafting him and then switching him from quarterback to wide receiver, as former Bills general manager and Pro Football Hall of Famer Bill Polian suggested a few months back: Don’t pick him.

“Uh, I’m not going to their team,” Jackson said at the NFL Scouting Combine. “Whoever likes me at quarterback, that’s where I’m going. That’s strictly my position. I’m a quarterback.”

There are certainly differing opinions about whether Jackson’s style of play can translate to the NFL, but there is no debate on one thing: The 2016 Heisman Trophy winner from Louisville was the most dynamic, “holy-smokes-did-you-see-that” player in college football over the past two seasons.

Jackson’s athleticism is off the charts, and he made plays that left fans shaking their heads in disbelief on his way to passing for 69 touchdowns and rushing for 50 more in three seasons. Some of his scrambles were even more impressive than Tyrod Taylor’s many escapes for the Buffalo Bills the past three years. Say what you want about Taylor, but to make that comparison is saying something.

Can his college game translate to NFL?

“Lamar Jackson, I think, is the most electrifying player in this draft, and I think somebody's going to take him and commit their offensive philosophy to him,” said Mike Mayock of NFL Network. “I would tell you that the most nervous 31 people in the league would be the defensive coordinators that would have to play against him.”

But evaluators like Polian also see the inconsistencies as a passer — the occasionally poor mechanics; the struggles to throw with anticipation which was one of Taylor’s greatest weaknesses; and the general inaccuracy that wasn’t always about incompletions but also poor ball placement which sometimes made it difficult for his receivers to gain yards after the catch.

“Clearly, clearly not the thrower that the other guys are,” Polian said, comparing Jackson to the projected big four in this draft – Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield. “The accuracy isn’t there.”

Said NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah, “Lamar Jackson makes some incredible throws and then he’ll have some spectacular misses; no in between. I think he can do some things mechanically to help himself out. He needs some time, but you could use him in packages while he’s developing.”

It’s the old square peg in a round hole theory; Jackson probably won’t fit in a traditional NFL style offense, but if you shave and round the edges of that peg and coach him properly, he has enough natural ability to fit in somewhere, and perhaps even become a star. Whichever team picks Jackson, it will have to make a precise commitment to tailor its offense around his skill set.

“I think a team is going to bite on him and commit to him philosophically (because) you have to understand what you’re getting,” said Mayock. “I think the way the NFL is going, teams are going to start to commit (to players with his talent). You saw what Bill O’Brien did with DeShaun Watson (in Houston). He did an outstanding job of catering to DeShaun and making him comfortable last year. I think somebody is going to do that with Lamar. He’s Michael Vick. He has as good a pair of legs as anybody in the history of the game. And he’s going to win games with his legs.”

At Louisville, Jackson played primarily out of shotgun and pistol formations in his Heisman season, but coach Bobby Petrino put him under center more in 2017, partly to help him be better-equipped to move on to the NFL. It was certainly a benefit to Jackson, but he remains a big-time work in progress and may not be able to compete for a starting NFL job right away.

Are the Bills the right fit?

The ideal scenario for Jackson is probably getting selected by a team that already has a starter in place and let him apprentice for a year, maybe even two. The downside to that is in today’s NFL, teams need instant contributions from their draft picks, and that could hurt Jackson’s status.

Is Buffalo a good landing spot for Jackson? Well, some have opined that Jackson could be a nice consolation prize at No. 12 should Brandon Beane not be able to trade up. The Bills signed A.J. McCarron and he began the offseason program this week No. 1 on the depth chart. There’s a good chance McCarron will stay in that spot no matter who the Bills pick next week, but that seems like a certainty if their drafted quarterback is not one of the top four and is Jackson or Mason Rudolph.

“They have to decide how much of a difference is there between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield or Josh Rosen,” said ESPN’s Mel Kiper. “I mean, let's say A.J. McCarron’s going to be their starter. So do you want to go up and have to give up all which you’re going to have to give up to go up to get one of those quarterbacks, those elite quarterbacks, or we can sit where we are at pick 12 or maybe at 22 and get him?”

In the case of Jackson, he may not last until 22, not with teams like Arizona and Baltimore slotted between Buffalo’s two first-round spots.

“I think how they evaluate Lamar Jackson is key to this whole thing because you don’t have to give up anything to get him,” Kiper said of Beane and the Bills’ hierarchy. “You’ve got the 12th pick, you’ve got the 22nd pick. Take Lamar Jackson there and don’t give up anything. Or, if you feel like there’s a big difference between the top, the elite, down to where Jackson is in the middle of the first – there’s a big gap there in terms of grade – then you go up and get your guy. So I think that depends upon their ratings board.”

Accuracy is a concern

Watching Jackson is a thrill. He’s so explosive as a runner, which explains how he scored those 50 TDs and gained 4,132 yards even though sack yardage gets subtracted from the rushing total in college football. As a passer, he threw for 9,043 yards, but his accuracy was erratic, evidenced by his 57 percent career completion percentage.

Obviously, there are many factors that go into that, the same factors that are baked into the evaluation of Allen, a career 56.3 percent passer at Wyoming who may end up being the No. 1 pick in the draft. Why is Allen considered a better prospect than Jackson? Because Allen weighs 20 pounds more, he’s two inches taller, and he has the stronger arm.

Then again, you could make the argument in favor of Jackson that he played tougher competition in the ACC than Allen did in the Mountain West, and while Allen didn’t always dominate, Jackson most certainly did in the bulk of games he played. You don’t win the Heisman without dominating, after all.

Beane and coach Sean McDermott talked in generalities about the draft on Monday, and naturally they mentioned no names. However, one comment Beane made seemed as if he could have been talking specifically about Jackson.

“There’s a lot that goes into evaluating college quarterbacks,” Beane said. “It’s a much harder job than evaluating pro quarterbacks with the systems, the talent level. You’ve got some teams that are all spreads, some conferences play great defense, some don’t. You’ve got all sorts of things that you have to weigh in there.”

Jackson will be a fascinating player to watch during the first round, and if he lands in the right spot, he could be a fascinating player to watch for years to come. Or, he may become another college quarterback with eye-popping statistics and a Heisman in his trophy case who either couldn’t figure out how to play in the NFL, or the team he ends up with couldn’t figure out how to get the very best out of him.

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