Rep. Chris Collins appeared set to cruise to another win this fall in what has been New York's most conservative congressional district.
The Clarence Republican was re-elected by wide margins twice after unseating a Democratic incumbent six years ago in the state's 27th district, which covers the mostly rural areas between Rochester and Buffalo and voted heavily for Donald Trump in 2016.
Then he was arrested.
Collins' federal indictment Wednesday threatens to upend his bid for a fourth two-year term, giving Democrats hope they can flip the seat their way in November as they attempt to take back the House of Representatives.
But not even 11 felony charges may be enough to knock Collins from his perch as the favorite this fall, when he will face a challenge from Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray, a Democrat.
"Chris Collins's district, NY-27, is really *quite* red, surprisingly so for New York state, but not so red that Democrats don't have a shot there against a guy just arrested by the FBI," FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver, who specializes in analyzing public-opinion polls, wrote Wednesday on Twitter.
Insider trading scandal
Collins is accused of insider trading.
Federal prosecutors in Manhattan say he shared secret information about an Australian biotech company's failed drug trial with his son, a fellow major shareholder in the company.
Collins' son then told his fiancee's family, according to prosecutors. The son and family sold many of their shares and avoided $768,000 in losses when the stock tanked after the news went public.
He's pleaded not guilty and his attorneys have pledged to exonerate him.
On Wednesday, Collins pledged to continue running for re-election, calling the charges "meritless" and vowing to "fight to clear (his) name."
"I will continue to work hard for the people of #NY27 and earn your vote this November," Collins tweeted.
Prior to his arrest, Collins' seat had been considered safely Republican.
As of April, the district had a moderate GOP enrollment edge with 183,641 active Republicans, 142,703 active Democrats and 97,801 independents.
But the district has voted heavily for Republicans since the most-recent round of redistricting in 2012, when a court redrew it to include all or part of eight western New York counties, including portions of Erie and Monroe.
Trump won the district by a 24-point margin in 2016, making it by far his best congressional district in the heavily Democratic state, according to The Cook Political Report.
Collins himself won big in 2014 and 2016, taking home 71 percent and 67 percent of the vote, respectively, against little-known opponents after narrowly defeating then-incumbent Rep. Kathy Hochul, D-Buffalo, in 2012.
Collins also has another distinct advantage: $1.3 million in his campaign account compared to McMurray's $81,772.
Democrats hopeful
Still, Democrats have long hoped to put up a challenge to Collins, with Gov. Andrew Cuomo unsuccessfully trying to convince Hochul — now his lieutenant governor — to enter the race earlier this year.
Hochul ultimately decided against a run. And McMurray resisted efforts by Cuomo and his allies to encourage him to exit the race and clear a path for Hochul or another Democrat.
The Cook Political Report, which tracks congressional races and their prospects for both parties, moved the district from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican" following Collins' arrest.
House Democrats, meanwhile, had the 27th district on their target list amid the investigations into Collins.
On Wednesday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee suggested it may put more resources behind McMurray as he ramps up his campaign.
“With Collins' arrest for corruption, unprecedented grassroots energy and the strong candidacy of Nate McMurray, this seat is firmly in play for Democrats," DCCC spokeswoman Meredith Kelly said in a statement.
McMurray was first elected supervisor of the Erie County town of Grand Island in 2015, when he won by 14 votes as a political newcomer.
The Democrat had struggled to attract media attention and fundraising dollars prior to Collins' arrest, which McMurray himself alluded to when he opened a news conferenceWednesday in front of an enthusiastic crowd at a Buffalo-area UAW hall.
"If I look a little surprised, not too long ago we had a press conference here and nobody showed up," he said with a laugh.
Race to November
McMurray said he may have raised more money Wednesday than the rest of the year combined.
"This has been as grassroots as it gets," McMurray said at the news conference. "No one thought we had a chance. No one thought we were in this. But we're going to do this in the end and we're going to fight for you."
While Democrats were eager to put the race back in play, Republican leaders were less willing to talk about Collins' re-election prospects.
State election law offers practically no way for GOP officials to throw Collins off the ballot without his consent. And even if he were to agree to step aside, Collins would have to be nominated for another position to be removed from the congressional ballot.
In a statement, state Republican Party Chair Ed Cox said party leaders are "of course disappointed with the news" of Collins' arrest.
"Clearly, this has been an ongoing investigation for some time, yet we still have more to learn about the facts," Cox said. "No one is above the law, but Chris deserves his day in court and we will wait to see what unfolds.”
Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown, chair of the state Democratic Committee, called on Collins to resign.
"Public service is a sacred trust," Brown said in a statement. "If anyone violates that trust, or the oath of office that they have sworn to uphold, they should not continue to serve in elected office."
But Collins has remained determined to remain in office, pledging to continue representing the district as he fights the charges in court.
"The public knows my dedication to western New York," Collins said during a 7-minute news conference late Wednesday.
"As I fight to clear my name, rest assured I will continue to work hard for the people and constituents of the 27th congressional district of New York and I will remain on the ballot running for re-election this November."
