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How NY's enrollment surge could influence key House races

All 27 U.S. House seats and all 213 state Legislature seats are on the ballot Tuesday, along with all statewide-level offices.
The two candidates for the 27th District Congressional District race have released new campaign ads.

ALBANY - Voter registration numbers released Thursday show a surge in voter enrollment throughout New York, particularly for the Democratic Party.

And the increase could play a key factor in critical U.S. House races in New York that will help determine who controls the chamber after Tuesday's elections.

Democrats saw their active enrollment numbers increase in 25 of the state's 27 congressional districts since April 1, the last time the state Board of Elections released enrollment numbers.

Overall, Democrats picked up 158,219 active voters in the last seven months, a nearly 3 percent increase.

Republicans gained just 1,435 active voters in the same period, a less than 1 percent increase.

Enrollment edge

The increase was across the state.

"The Democratic edge is most pronounced in New York City, were the Democratic enrollment edge is massive," the New York Public Interest Research Group said in a statement.

"Yet the Democratic edge is also growing across the non-New York City portions of the state. In fact, the erosion of Republican enrollment is greatest in those parts of the state."

The increase in Democratic enrollment is part of the "blue wave," contended to Geoff Berman, executive director of the state Democratic Committee.

“Given the extreme conservative agenda coming out of Washington, it’s no surprise we’ve seen record enrollment for Democrats who are fired up and ready to fight back," Berman said in a statement.

The Democratic enrollment boost could be bad news for Republicans in New York who haven't won a statewide race since 2002 and is clinging to a one-seat majority in the state Senate.

Looking by House district

All 27 U.S. House seats and all 213 state Legislature seats are on the ballot Tuesday, along with all statewide-level offices.

Districts spanning New York City had the largest enrollment increases, particularly the 12th District, state records showed.

Spanning Brooklyn, Manhattan and Queens, the district gained 27,433 active voters, the most in any district in the state. Of those, 6,633 enrolled as Democrats, a 6.4 percent increase since April.

It's not just the city.

Here's a breakdown of a few key-districts:

1st District

Polls currently show Rep. Lee Zeldin ahead of Democrat Perry Gershon in the Long Island district.

Democrats gained 2,444 active voters in the district since April, a nearly 2 percent increase.

Republicans lost over 2,098 active voters, but still hold an over 13,000 active voter advantage.

11th District

Democrat Max Rose is hoping to unseat Republican Rep. Dan Donovan

The district currently leans Republican, with the latest Siena College showing Donovan leading by 4-percentage-points.

The district, which spans parts of Brooklyn and Staten Island, saw an active enrollment increase of 13,802 voters: up 3.3 percent among Democrats and 2 percent among Republicans.

19th District

Perhaps one of the closest watched House races in the country, New York's 19th Congressional race between Rep. John Faso and Democrat Antonio Delgado is a toss-up.

Democrats have gained 6,142 active voters since April, a 4.3 percent increase.

Republicans in the district that stretches from the Hudson Valley to the Southern Tier, on the other hand, gained just 301 active voters.

22nd District

President Donald Trump, Eric Trump and Ivanka Trump have all campaigned for Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney, 57, in the district.

A Siena poll recently showed Democrat Anthony Brindsi, 39, leading by 1-percentage-point, 46 percent to 45 percent in the central New York seat.

Democrats gained 2,098 active voters. Republicans, on the other hand, lost 245 active voters. Still, Republicans hold a more than 28,000 active voter registration lead.

24th District

Polls show Republican Rep. John Katko, 55, ahead in this central New York district against Democrat Dana Balter, 41.

Democrats, however, saw a large uptick in enrollment, gaining 4,162 active voters, a 3 percent increase.

Republicans, who have 8,500 less active voters compared to Democrats, gained just 607.

27th District

No one expected Democrat Nate McMurray, 43, to stand a chance against Republican Rep. Chris Collins, 68.

Collins was then charged and arrested for insider trading, changing the tenor of the race.

The district is still has a heavy Republican enrollment edge, but Democrats picked up 1,848 active voters since April, according to state records.

Republicans, on the other hand, added just 467 active voters.