BUFFALO, NY-- Monday, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) came out with their forecast for the month of November that showed much of the country been flooded with warm air. November, according to the CPC will be a warm month. While that may be true, there are some things that we are seeing on the other side of the globe that will allow the third and forth weeks of the month to be much cooler than the first two.
One areas of the globe we are looking at is Eurasia, which is made up of the countries of Russia, Mongolia and China. Right now, the temperatures there are extremely cold, running well below average over a very large area. Also a deep snow pack has developed over the same region. There is a link to the amount of snow and the spread of snowfall in the month of October and early November and the weather conditions that could be down the road for us on the Eastern part of the country in the weeks and months following.
When you have so much cold air, high pressure is created. That high pressure eventually can displace the jet stream which is the river of air that directs storm systems and air masses across the globe.
The jet stream is currently racing across the Pacific Ocean flooding North America with warm air, which is why November will be off to a very mild start. However, as that high pressure over Eurasia builds, it could cause the jet stream to begin to buckle allowing a discharge of colder air from the the North to the South over North America in a couple of weeks.
In years past, this linkage has been proven to be effective in forecasting colder weather in the long-range and that's how we feel this month of November may end, on the cold side.
So even though, on average, the month may come down as looking above normal temperature-wise. The warmth at the beginning of the month will certainly be balanced by the cold at the end of the month and possibly leading into December.