5 months ago
A political race that few expected to be a challenge is now closer than anyone imagined.
2 On Your Side commissioned an independent poll from SurveyUSA in the Democratic primary for Buffalo Mayor. According to the results of that poll, incumbent Mayor Byron Brown and South District Common Council Member Michael Kearns are in a statistical dead heat.
According to our scientific 2 On Your Side and SurveyUSA poll, Brown has 48% of the vote, Kearns has 47%, and 5% are undecided.
There is a 4.2% margin of error.
580 likely voters in the City of Buffalo were part of the telephone survey last Wednesday and Thursday.
When you breakdown the numbers and look at the demographics, Brown leads among women 51% to Kearns' 43%. Among men, however, Kearns leads Brown 52% to 44%.
The divide is even deeper among race. Brown leads Kearns 86% to 13% among black voters. While Kearns leads among white voters 64% to 29%.
Two key issues also split voters. When asked about creating jobs in Buffalo, 56% select Brown over 39% for Kearns. But on the controversial topic of One Sunset 86% choose Kearns over 12% for Brown.
And it is worth pointing out again that this poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday, before new allegations about preferential treatment being given to the now-defunct restaurant's owner Leonard Stokes.
Click here to open a full a copy of the survey results.
We brought the poll results to each of the candidates.
Michael Kearns said, "There's no way you can spin it, that we are in this race and this race is a dead heat."
Mayor Byron Brown said, "I don't think those numbers are accurate."
The mayor's camp insists black voters are under represented in this poll. SurveyUSA, the group that conducts the scientific poll, says if he's right, he could win.
"If black turnout exceeds our models the mayor is re-elected," Jay Levee said.
But, the pollster stands by the numbers.
"It's the same system we use in every corner of the country... It's a system that's worked remarkable well for SurveyUSA," Levee said.
"Even if you don't believe the numbers would you say that it's closer than a lot of people thought?" Kristin Donnelly asks.
"I always thought any campaign has to be worked hard and has to be paid attention to, so I don't look at the numbers I reach out to the people," Brown says.
Kearns said, "I'm not surprised. I've been going door-to-door. It shows that the citizens of Buffalo want real change in this city. I've been saying this. A million dollars is not going to win this election. It's going to be the people and it's the citizens of Buffalo."
