It's been a rough two weeks for me on the prediction front ...
Even political pundits think my forecasting needs some work.
Even Sean Avery thinks my Round Two performance was weak.
Even David Blaine thinks my magic tricks stink.
(Yes, that was an unprovoked shot at David Blaine ... he knows what he did ...)
After a sterling start to the Playoff Challenge, I picked just one out of four winners in the second round, compared to Tim Schmitt, who notched three winners and has proceeded to gloat mercilessly about it on his blog.
Luckily, even Carrot Top thinks Tim's one-liners were lame ...
That's OK, though; he's got every right to brag and boast; he stepped it up in Round Two and beat me fair and square. Tim's actually pretty accurate with his picks when Ottawa's not playing.
Here's the bad news: I actually agree with both of Tim's picks this round, so I won't be able to catch him until the Stanley Cup Finals. The good news? I'm still in the hunt ... and the lead in this thing has changed more times than Tim's profile picture ...
Eastern Conference: Pittsburgh over Philadelphia in 5. Gotta hand it to Philly; they totally took the Canadiens out of their game and turned Carey Price into a self-doubting cautionary tale for rookie goaltenders. But I don't see the Pens folding that easily, and as much as I love him, I don't see Marty Biron holding off their stud scorers.
Western Conference: Detroit over Dallas in 6. Oh, that four-overtime game really hurt ... although, as Tim pointed out, we both watched it to the finish and saw an absolutely memorable affair. Part of me thinks Dallas might pull this one out, too, considering the way Marty Turco is playing. But much like in the East, I think the higher seed is simply too strong offensively.
All right, Schmitt ... it's on again ... and just like they say in the NBA, there can only be one.
7:00 PM: The Bills wrap up their ten-pick special with Pitt CB Kennard Cox at #251.
Overall thoughts? This seems to be one of those years where everything broke right for the Bills in the higher rounds. McKelvin fell to 'em at #11, instantly upgrading the cornerback position; then the wide receivers all dropped out of the first round, giving Buffalo its veritable pick of the litter at #41. So to review, the Bills filled two important holes without having to trade up to do so.
As for their Day Two selections, the Bills seem to have gone a little more project-heavy this year, but as I said before, I like their philosophy of using late-round picks for high-motor guys that'll fill the depth chart with pride.
Obviously, we won't know till we see 'em on the field. But at this point, I'm pretty impressed with the crop of picks the Bills walked away with in the 2008 NFL Draft.
6:15 PM: Another three cheers for UB! Center Jamey Richard goes to the Colts in the seventh round ...
5:15 PM: It's the seventh round, and it's project time. The Bills take a very raw prospect in tackle Demetrius Bell at #219, and they follow it up with a sort-of proven wideout in Steve Johnson at #224. One more pick coming up, and it's the second-to-last selection in the NFL Draft.
4:15 PM: The Bills' recent slate of picks represents, I think, the correct way to look at the potential of late-rounders. They have gone out of their way to draft guys who are much heavier on motor and intensity than physical prowess. Fine, Bowen, and Omon all fit that bill -- guys who can make an impact in multiple areas (their position, special teams) while maintaining the drive to overcome the low odds of making it as a late-round pick.
It's an interesting philosophy, and I think it has served Dick Jauron and Co. very well the last few years. You look at all the late-round success stories, as well as all the guys who stepped up in the fact of injuries last year, and you see a team that has filled its depth chart with players that do more help than harm.
3:40 PM: The Bills pick up a running back in Round Six with Xavier Omon out of Northwest Missouri State. A wild card small-school choice at tailback? Sure, but they've certainly found success with that recently (see Jackson, Fred). And yeah, he's Division II, but he also scored 37 touchdowns last seaon.
*37* touchdowns ...
Perhaps he becomes a short-yardage threat? Surely that's the best-case scenario for this 226-pounder.
3:20 PM: Congrats are in order for Trevor Scott, the defensive end from UB who is now an Oakland Raider. Scott was selected with the third pick of the sixth round, #169 overall.
2:30 PM: Bills assistant DeMontie Cross helped coach new draft pick Alvin Bowen at Iowa State. "He's an energetic guy," said Cross with a grin. "When we first got him out of a junior college, he started doing backwards flips just standing still. I knew right then he was an explosive kid.
"I know he'll fit exactly what we're looking for defensively, and I know [special teams coach Bobby] April will be excited to have him coming in."
Cross brings up a good point; a speed demon like that will hopefully find a nice home on kick coverage, in addition to providing a security blanket at linebacker. In fact, Cross seemed to imply that special teams will be Bowen's primary role on the team.
2:20 PM: Now we're starting to get into "strictly-for-depth" territory.
The Bills just took outside linebacker Alvin Bowen with their fifth-round pick; this guy falls into the "small but fast" category and will be expected to provide some depth and/or change of pace.
He's also the first Day Two pick with an interception on YouTube:
1:45 PM: Fine on Fine: "I think I'm a really complete player. I take real pride in my blocking; I think that's what got me to this point."
He also says he expected to go anywhere from the 4th through the 6th round, but he says, "obviously in the 4th round there's a little more money, so it's a little bit cooler ..."
Hey, the man's honest ...
1:30 PM: A Fine pick? (Tut, tut ...)
The Bills just went with another comically-inclined name with their second fourth-rounder: Derek Fine, a tight end out of Kansas.
Once again, they had Kellen Davis on the board and turned away from him, this time reaching around him to select someone else at his position. Fine was rated a sleeper by some and was generally considered one of the top 5-10 tight ends in the draft.
"To me he was the complete tight end," said scout Brad Forsyth. "He plays with leverage, and in terms of the pass game, [he is] more of a short-area-type receiver. He's a better athlete than people give him credit for."
As for outside opinion, the draft web site nfldraftcountdown.com basically portrays Fine as a guy whose physical skills are lacking but whose intangibles and toughness are rock-solid. It's an interesting project, although not someone I would expect to make much of an immediate impact.
12:55 PM: The Bills scout's comments on Corner:
Tom Roth: "Very good run support, good instincts, good coverage ability, good ball skills -- really, there's not many negatives at all about the kid."
Corner has had some academic issues during his schooling and didn't get a lot of attention from the big schools, but he turned into a shutdown DB at Akron. He was a four-year starter who, according to Roth, "plays much bigger than" his 5'9" height.
Scout Dave G. Smith on Corner: "If he was two inches taller, he would have been a first-round pick."
One interesting note: Corner went up man-to-man this past season against the Bills' second-round pick, James Hardy of Indiana. Hardy's numbers in that game? Four catches, 65 yards, and a touchdown. The Bills' scouts called it a split decision, but Corner says he only actually allowed one of Hardy's catches ...
12:40 PM: It's been two minutes since the Bills picked CB Reggie Corner, and already there have been at least six "a corner named Corner" jokes made in the media room.
Interesting move here by the Bills. With a potential boom-bust prospect still on the board at tight end Kellen Davis, it's a bit surprising to see them ignore that need. My guess is they're not sold on Davis, but this seemed like a nice spot to take a chance.
11:20 AM: The funniest sound bite (at least in my eyes, I don't think anyone else laughed) just came from new defensive end Chris Ellis in his phone interview.
Asked about what he knew about the Bills, he said incredulously, "I know they need pass rushers!"
Ouch ... but I love the man's confidence. I also think he may have been a little hard on the Bills pass rush. A certain Mr. Schobel and Mr. Kelsay may beg to differ with Ellis' assessment.
However, the Bills could certainly use depth at DE, and if Ellis can get into a mix as a third-down rusher and rotation guy, he'll back up his words pretty quickly.
11:10 AM: Leodis McKelvin just addressed the media in person, with team owner Ralph Wilson by his side. Among the highlights:
-he was a Dallas Cowboys fan growing up -according to Wilson, the Bills did not think McKelvin would be available at #11 -McKelvin seems very intent on getting into the return game (when told about the already-strong runback presence of Terrence McGee and Roscoe Parrish, the rook smiled and responded, "They can share it!")
Seems like a nice enough guy, if perhaps slightly overwhelmed by all the media attention, but he'll certainly be facing high expectations here this season.
10:40 AM: The Bills select DE Chris Ellis with their third-round pick, the 72nd overall in the draft. He projects as a nice supplement for what is already a stout rotation of Bills defensive ends.
"It gives us quite a few defensive ends," said defensive line coach Bill Kollar. "Especially early in the season when you're playing in the hot-[weather] games, it's great when you can rotate guys; it makes a big difference for us."
Ellis is a 6'4", 267-pound lineman from Virginia Tech, a three-year starter who made All-ACC as a senior. The coaches and scouts who spoke at the podium here didn't give much description beyond the typical "He's a playmaker" lines, but here's what some other scouting reports say:
ESPN.com: "Teams are going to have success running at Ellis; he's undersized and doesn't have great lower-body strength. In fact, he may never develop into an every-down player. But there's a lot to like about his potential as a situational pass-rusher. He's quick, relentless and has the foot speed to develop an arsenal of pass-rush moves."
Warroomreport.com: "His pass rushing skills and ideal NFL size frame are intriguing and he should develop into a fine 4-3 defensive end if he is willing to work at it and stay out of trouble."
10:15 AM: Welcome to the Day Two Draft Blog. We're here at One Bills Drive, keeping you updated on the latest from the Bills' 2008 draft.
By the way, perhaps now would be an appropriate time to clear something up ... I've had four different people ask me over the last few weeks, "So do you and Tim really hate each other or what?" That could not be further from the truth ... our rivalry is entirely mock-heroic, and in real life we are indeed friends.
And now, back to taking him down ...
As you recall, the rules of the Challenge are as such: 2 points per correct series winner, 1 bonus point per correct number of games. It's 11-8, me, after one. Here's how the first round went:
MATT: 11 points Montreal over Boston in 5 (2 pts) Pittsburgh over Ottawa in 5 (2 pts) Washington over Philly in 5 (0 pts) NJ Devils over NY Rangers in 7 (0 pts)
Detroit over Nashville in 5 (2 pts) San Jose over Calgary in 4 (2 pts) Colorado over Minnesota in 6 (3 pts) Anaheim over Dallas in 7 (0 pts)
TIM: 8 points Montreal over Boston in 5 (2 pts) Ottawa over Pittsburgh in 6 (0 pts ... and might I add, wow ...) Washington over Philly in 5 (0 pts) NJ Devils over NY Rangers in 6 (0 pts)
Detroit over Nashville in 5 (2 pts) San Jose over Calgary in 5 (2 pts) Minnesota over Colorado in 6 (0 pts) Dallas over Anaheim in 7 (2 pts)
And now, for my second-round picks. As a fan, I can't wait for this round; as a prognosticator, it frightens me. You've got four extremely tight match-ups (which means no chance to get an easy two points when Tim makes an Ottawa-over-Pittsburgh-type pick). Here are my predictions:
Montreal over Philadelphia in 7: If you had asked me to pick this series two weeks ago, I would have taken the Canadiens and not even blinked. But that was before the Habs found themselves muddled by a brusing opponent in Boston -- an opponent they should have manhandled. Philly's just like Boston, but even more physical.
The Flyers also have more offensive firepower than the B's, which makes me think they'll find a way to further make a dent in Carey Price's rookie confidence. However, Philly isn't anywhere as sound defensively as the Bruins, and that'll cost 'em. The Canadiens will make 'em pay for their occasionally sloppy play, and they'll ultimately take the series ... but not without a fight.
NY Rangers over Pittsburgh in 6: I was impressed with both the Pens and Rangers in Round One, although I was equally unimpressed with their respective opponents: the Senators had no jump, and the Devils had no offense until it was too late.
This series is as much of a toss-up as any, but I'll call the upset for two reasons: (A) the Rangers' significant advantage in net thanks to Henrik Lundqvist, and (B) their overall balance. I love what Pittsburgh has done with its roster, but I love the Rangers' spunk even more. They've got experienced vets who are turning it on at the right time; I'll give 'em, hesitantly, the series win.
San Jose over Dallas in 6: I think this is a case where a team's first-round performance will prove misleading in terms of projecting its second-round success. The Stars faced an Anaheim team that looked out of it half the time, and they still needed six games to dispose of the Ducks.
Meanwhile, the Sharks found themselves in a brutal series against surprising Calgary. They persevered despite their obvious weaknesses, and I think they'll persevere again in Round Two.
Detroit over Colorado in 6: If you just look at the talent level on these two sides, you'd give this series to Detroit with full confidence. But then you look at the rivalry: Red Wings / Avalanche. It's gonna be a fight ...
Still, I can't give this one to the Avs, even though I correctly predicted their upset over the Wild in Round One. I'm not sure if the Wings have enough to win the whole she-bang, but I do believe they're deep enough to outlast a Colorado team that's a step down from its previous incarnations.
There it is, Schmitt ... do you think you could stop partying with Diddy and Shaq for two seconds and make some picks?
There's aggressive; there's agitating; and then there's Sean Avery.
Watch the video of Avery screening Marty Brodeur in last night's Game 3 between the Devils and Rangers (fast forward to the 1:20 mark for the close-up replay):
Hey, the stuff works ... and I say that even though I'm rooting for the Devils in this series.
(I also like the announcer's genuine enthusiasm when he goes, "I've never seen anything like this!!!" It's as if he discovered a new element or something ...)
-Seriously though, what's up with Madonna getting credit for other people's great work? I've heard that "4 Minutes" song quite a bit already, and Madge has nothing to do with why that song's a propulsive slice of pop heaven. Same goes for the video, where she does some very questionable dance moves (including what looks like the ol' wink-and-the-gun) while being totally outshined by Justin Timberlake, Timbaland, and a giant digital clock. Of course, when all is said and done, it's her song, so she'll be the one selling albums with it ...
-Movie Review #1: I saw Michael Clayton on DVD this past week and thought it was OK. George Clooney's performance was terrific -- commanding yet understated, with far less swagger and far more depth than previous Clooney characters -- but I felt the plot took way too long to get going. The movie doesn't really start moving along till about halfway through, and the payoff -- while very strong -- didn't fulfill me like I thought I would. Perhaps it was a case of having too high expectations, but I was expecting a grander scale from this film in terms of overarching themes; instead, it's a film that pretty much stays confined to its own world without really reflecting on ours.
-Movie Review #2: On the other hand, 3:10 to Yuma very much succeeds despite having many of the same qualities as Michael Clayton: riveting performances, suitable tension, and a slow-building plot. In Yuma's case, though, I felt like I got more out of it in terms of themes that connected. The arc between the main character (played by Christian Bale) and his son provides some touching moments, especially towards the end, and the dialogue between Bale's and Russell Crowe's characters raises some unique moral questions. A solid film, in my opinion.
-I just got done playing nine holes of golf for the first time this year. Welcome back, spring ... nice to see you again ...
-Don't forget, the Pearl vs. Schmitt Playoff Challenge gets going underway tonight. And while Tim is an undoubtedly better golfer, the title of "Top Hockey Prediction Maker" (wordy as it may be) is still up for grabs.
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I am a sports journalist for Channel 2, but my interests run rampant from movies to music to literature to TV to becoming an Iron Chef (!). My blog will be devoted to providing perspectives -- uplifting stories that I come across; reviews of books, movies, and albums I enjoy; and a smorgasbord of general reflections (as well as a smorgasbord of big words, apparently). See my complete profile
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