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Suddenly more formidable Dolphins pose difficult test for Bills

This is a Dolphins team that looked dead and buried during a five-game losing streak that started with a 40-0 loss to Baltimore and then carried through the entire month of November with losses to Oakland, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and New England which dropped Miami to 3-7.
Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy (25) runs the ball for a touchdown to win the game in overtime against the Indianapolis Colts at New Era Field. Buffalo beat Indianapolis 13-7 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

Some things never change in the NFL, and the one intangible that remains constant from week to week is this: It’s not who you’re playing, it’s when you’re playing them that matters most when it comes to the NFL schedule.

As bad luck would have it, the Bills are facing the Dolphins twice in the final three weeks of the 2017 season — starting Sunday at New Era Field — at a time when Miami is playing its best football, by far, of the year.

This is a Dolphins team that looked dead and buried during a five-game losing streak that started with a 40-0 loss to Baltimore and then carried through the entire month of November with losses to Oakland, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and New England which dropped Miami to 3-7.

Bills fans looking ahead to this closing stretch of three games in the AFC East — the Patriots are sandwiched between the two Miami games — were feeling pretty good about a sweep over the Dolphins. After what we saw last week in their 27-20 victory over New England, this is no pushover Dolphins squad and the Bills will need their best effort to win Sunday.

Here’s my preview of the game:

Three ...
1. Is Miami running back Kenyan Drake the new Jay Ajayi? If you remember, Ajayi tortured the Bills last season as he topped 200 yards rushing in each of Miami’s two victories. Bills fans probably cheered when the Dolphins traded Ajayi to Philadelphia earlier this year, but now the Dolphins are relying on Drake who looked like a runaway train on a few plays last week in Miami’s victory over New England. Drake was Miami’s third-round pick in 2016, and he has become an integral part of coach Adam Gase’s offense, averaging 4.8 yards per attempt. Not only does he take pressure off up-and-down QB Jay Cutler, he also helps in the passing game because he’s a useful target who can generate explosive plays if the first defender misses. The weather is expected to be normal for December, meaning cold and some wind, so the Dolphins may try to hammer the Bills on the ground the way they did last year when they came up to New Era Field and beat the Bills in Week 16. Buffalo’s run defense has been suspect in the second half of the year, so this is a concern.

2. Does it matter who plays quarterback for the Bills? Tyrod Taylor will get the start over Nathan Peterman who remains in concussion protocol and will not dress, but the bottom line is that neither of these QBs has given the offense much of a boost this season. The Bills have the 31st-ranked passing game, most of that a result of Taylor’s inability and/or unwillingness to throw downfield to a corps of underwhelming wide receivers. Peterman has had a few chances to play, and he completely killed his first with five interceptions in Los Angeles, and then last week, the weather made it impossible to evaluate him before he left with a concussion in the third quarter. Miami’s defense played very well last week, but taking the season as a whole, this is a unit that has not rushed the passer very well, and it has been vulnerable through the air. CB Xavien Howard has been hot with four picks the last two games, but otherwise, this is an average secondary and the Bills are going to need to take some shots downfield and take some of the burden off RB LeSean McCoy.

3. Which Jay Cutler will show up for Miami? Cutler is coming off a fine performance against the Patriots, but if there’s anything we know about Cutler, it’s that he can be wildly inconsistent. Cutler was basically retired in the summer when Ryan Tannehill went down with a knee injury, so he accepted the Dolphins’ offer to come play, and true to his form of the last few years, he simply wasn’t a difference maker, particularly when Miami went through a five-game losing streak. Now the Dolphins have won two straight and are still breathing in the playoff race, but you have to wonder if they can count on Cutler to deliver three straight big performances to close the season, starting Sunday on a cold day in Buffalo. Bills fans complain about Taylor, but Cutler has thrown for just 10 more yards this season despite having 12 more completions. He’s been the ultimate short-game thrower, especially to WR Jarvis Landry who has 88 catches, second-most in the NFL, but for just an 8.5-yard average per reception. If the Bills can put pressure on Cutler, you could see him crumbling.

and Out

This is a must-win game for both teams. Buffalo is in a slightly better position with one more victory on its resume, but given that its last two games are at New England and then at Miami, this is about as must-win as it gets in a non-elimination setting. The Bills wasted their late-season home-field advantage against the Dolphins last season and that 34-31 overtime loss in Week 16 officially ended Buffalo’s minuscule playoff hopes. The Bills can’t let that happen again, and my sense is they won’t. Last week’s victory over Indianapolis showed this team has some grit, and if Buffalo can get off to a good start Sunday, especially on offense, it could dictate play the rest of the day. McCoy will be the focal point on offense, as always, but Taylor has had some past success against the Dolphins — his only career 300-yard passing game came in that Week 16 loss — and he needs to have a big day, too. Ideally, if WR Kelvin Benjamin plays, which is expected, Taylor needs to get him involved early, and if he can, that might soften things up for McCoy in the running game. Also, it would be nice to see TE Charles Clay make some noise against his former teammates because when he’s going well, the Buffalo offense is more effective. MY PICK: Bills 23, Dolphins 20.

By the Numbers

39 – That’s how many yards LeSean McCoy needs to become just the 30th running back in NFL history to surpass 10,000 career rushing yards.

3 – Dolphins running backs in team history who have rushed for more than 100 yards and caught passes for more than 75 yards in the same game. Kenyan Drake last week joined Troy Stradford and Ronnie Brown.

52 – Rushing plays stuffed (zero or lost yardage) by Miami DT Ndamukong Suh since 2010, most in the NFL. Buffalo’s Kyle Williams is third in that span with 36.5.

Talking points
QB Tyrod Taylor on Sean McDermott saying that, when healthy, he’s the starter: “I don’t necessarily think about that. My focus each and every week is preparing myself and getting the guys ready to go out there and play winning football on Sundays. These next three games, starting with this one, are very important for us as a team and for our offense. Two very good teams on the defensive side of the ball. We have to go out there and execute better than we’ve done and the time is now for us to take that step.”

RB LeSean McCoy on approaching 10,000 career yards rushing: “It’s hard to really look at my career right now, because we’re still kind of in the playoff hunt. We need big wins to have a shot, so I think after the season I can really reflect and look at my career and the 10,000-yard mark, passing that. It’ll happen, I’ll have my time and my family to talk about it and enjoy it, my teammates that have helped me get to this point. I think right now, just the most important thing is to get a win.”

SS Micah Hyde on playing against Jay Cutler: “Well, Jay has weapons and when Jay has weapons, I’ve seen in the past, he’s able to make some big plays. He just gets it in their hands and they’re able to create some big plays for them. We’re aware of the weapons that they have in the receivers, tight ends, the back, playing well. They’ve got it all right now and we’re just trying to go out there and play fundamentally sound football. It’s going to be a challenge for us.”

Quote to Note

Lorenzo Alexander on the career of LeSean McCoy: “He’s been special, ever since he got into this league. He’s a guy that has you on pins and needles every time he has the ball in his hands, as an opponent, because he can be at anywhere at any time. That’s all a huge reason why I signed here, being able to play alongside of him (and) what he brings to the team. He’s just a special talent, great dude, great teammate. I cheer for him as he’s chasing 10,000 (yards). That’s a position where you tend to get old fast, and he’s shown that he’s here for a long time in this league.”

NFL rankings
Bills Dolphins
Total offense: 298.2 yards (26th) ; 297.9 (28th)
Rush offense: 130.1 yards (6th); 87.4 (29th)
Pass offense: 168.1 yards (31st); 210.5 (19th)
Points scored: 18.5 (23rd); 18.2 (24th)
Total defense: 351.2 yards (23rd); 332.8 (16th)
Rush defense: 123.7 yards (27th); 109.5 (15th)
Pass defense: 227.5 yards (17th); 223.4 (14th)
Points allowed: 22.3 (16th); 24.5 (26th)

Individual leaders
Rushing

Bills: LeSean McCoy 239 carries, 1,007 yards; Tyrod Taylor 69-334; Mike Tolbert 56-211; Travaris Cadet 17-69.
Dolphins: Kenyan Drake 90-434; Damien Williams 46-181.

Passing

Bills: Tyrod Taylor 206 of 326, 2,090 yards, 12 TDs, 4 interceptions.
Dolphins: Jay Cutler 218 of 340, 2,100 yards, 18 TDs, 11 interceptions.

Receiving

Bills: LeSean McCoy 48 catches, 304 yards; Charles Clay 34-389; Jordan Matthews 25-282; Zay Jones 25-291; Deonte Thompson 20-330; Nick O’Leary 19-263.
Dolphins: Jarvis Landry 88-745; Kenny Still 50-751; DeVante Parker 40-454; Julius Thomas 39-373; Kenyan Drake 23-189.

Bills schedule
9/10 vs. Jets W 21-12
9/17 at Panthers L 3-9
9/24 vs. Broncos W 26-16
10/1 at Falcons W 23-17
10/8 at Bengals L 16-20
10/22 vs. Buccaneers W 30-27
10/29 vs. Raiders W 34-14
11/2 at Jets L 21-34
11/12 vs. Saints L 10-47
11/19 at Chargers L 24-54
11/26 at Chiefs W 16-10
12/3 vs. Patriots L 3-23
12/10 vs. Colts W 13-7 (OT)
12/17 vs. Dolphins
12/24 at Patriots
12/31 at Dolphins

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